Vote for What?

What is so great about South Africa, that makes it in-vulnerable to an election?

Or what is so bad in India that makes it vulnerable to IPL?

South Africa had their general elections on 22^nd April. The day when Deccan Chargers won their 2^nd match  thanks to Adam Gilchrist & Rohit Sharma’s exploits. (Click for match info)

While elections  - and the fear of a security lapse were the main concerns to shift the IPL to SA, how come it could be managed so well in SA.

This debate would have already suffered the fate of a once fearsome cobra ending up as a soup in a street side ‘thela’ in Cape Town; but guess the after-taste is keeping the cobra from a peaceful digestion.

Agreed that the magnitude of elections, the size of the electorate, the cultural diversity, civic apathy etc are insurmountable walls of difference between the two countries.  Just statistic is enough to kill the debate on similarity of the two nations - India is twenty times larger (over 1 billion people) than South Africa (45 million people).  South Africa is the 25th-largest country in the world. India is 7^th largest.  South Africa is ranked 25th in the world in terms of GDP (PPP) as of 2007. And India is ranked world’s twelfth.

But despite the differences, the sheer range of geo-political as well as socio-economic issues that the ‘aam aadmi” grapples with are similar. South Africa has one of the highest rates of income inequality in the world. South Africa has eleven official languages and multiple ethnic cultures. According to a survey for the period 1998–2000 compiled by the United Nations, South Africa was ranked second for murder and first for assaults and rapes per capita (India is fast catching up though).   Total crime per capita is 10th out of the 60 countries in the data set. South Africa has the world's largest HIV/AIDS population, 5.3 million or 11% of all South Africans, according to official figures. It has the world's ninth highest murder rate. On its borders it has Zimbabwe, whose implosion it has undertaken to help reverse, not least because that collapse has added an estimated 500,000 refugees to South Africa's already stressed social system. And in the 15 years since the formal end of apartheid, social inequality and the number of South Africans living in poverty have actually grown.

Corrupt, illiterate and criminal are just some of the qualities that are synonymous with the Indian politician. But look at who SA got as their president hopeful (and incumbent)-  Jacob Zuma has six wives. His financial adviser was jailed for bribing him, he likes to sing, he grew up herding goats and completed just three years at school, but rose to prominence as an ANC guerrilla and intelligence chief, serving 10 years in prison with Nelson Mandela.  (There might be good side of him. But that’s not interesting. ;-).   Despite the gravity of the AIDS problem  in SA, Zuma himself has notoriously, displayed even greater ignorance on AIDS, claiming in court that after having sex with a woman who knew to be HIV-positive, he protected himself by having a shower.

For a country who could stage the IPL in 4 weeks  (29 days to be exact) and an election to tot, they are also hosting the British and Irish Lions rugby team, and later this year cricket's Champions Trophy, another refugee from the perceived dangers of the subcontinent. Next year, it will be football's World Cup. 

Cultural biases notwithstanding, there are differences that are glaring enough for a statistician who is looking for logical and functional base to dismiss the ‘similarity’ theory. But between a nation who just entered the 15^th year of (full) democracy and a nation who celebrated its golden jubilee 2 years back, these statistics are enough to de-motivate one’s faith in the world’s largest democracy – and our capability in doing what we think is possible. Despite the “vote” campaigns that ricochet on the idiot box and the toast of this year’s social campaigns, voter turnout in the first phase of the 2009 Indian elections was still dismal. While in South Africa,  the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) has put the final voter turn out at 77.3 percent, one the highest voter turn-out in the world.

To look back at a statement from our hounourable Union Home Minister, Mr P. Chidambaram. “It will be difficult to provide para-military forces for 40 matches and elections too,” he said “I don’t want the forces to be stretched.”  And juxtapose this one last statistic - India has the 3^rd largest armed forces in the world. South Africa figures 63^rd. (check here).

For me, the issue is larger than staging the IPL.

Since the first Pak incursion in October, 1947, internal security has not moved beyond the jingoistic rhetoric based on most recent setback. IPL has been moved out of India, the India-Australia Davis cup is the next in line. And as time passes by us, I would imagine that the minimum deterrence required for a nation to stand up to internal or external threats seems to be only waning. And we just seem to trudge along with our collective conscience of an impotent nation.  

I have only become more cynical about the political will of the nation that first had its general elections in 1951. Election manifestos and poll agendas are only added on to the initial “roti, kapda, makkaan’ campaigns… literacy, primary health care, potable water, electricity, roads, female infanticide… the list only seems to be growing, No goals ever seem to be achieved…poll planks notwithstanding, even the planning commission’s 5 year plan seems like an ‘to-be-continued’ Government omnibus.  

The thought refuses to leave me every time I watch an IPL match - in a multi party see saw in India, hope for a political will seems misplaced. (incidentally ANC the majority party in SA had a 66% share of the parliament).  

But then it is also not about absolute majority. Read a quote of ANC spokeswoman Jessie Duarte, She said "You don't need two-thirds to govern a country. You need political will to do so."

With the curtains slowly descending on the campaigning for the general elections 2009, that doubt only seems to grow…why should I keep flushing down my vote?